← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 42% | 2.27 |
| Hannover win | 32% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.66 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | 🟨 | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 57' | 🟨 | Max Christiansen · Hannover |
| 66' | 🟨 | Max Christiansen · Hannover |
| 66' | 🟥 | Max Christiansen · Hannover |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 806.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1553.43 | 1490.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.66 | 1.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |