← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 42% | 2.27 |
| Hannover win | 32% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.66 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hannover −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand