← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 48% | 2.06 |
| Nurnberg win | 29% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Brown · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | William Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV |
| 80' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 198.00 | 898.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1481.19 | 1600.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.28 | -20.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 26.11 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |