← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 64% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.86 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 17% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck −1.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Hertha −1.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.50 |
| Under | 35% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Michał Karbownik · Hertha |
| 51' | 🟨 | Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck |
| 55' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christian Joe Conteh · VfL Osnabruck |
| 85' | 🟥 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dave Gnaase · VfL Osnabruck |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 259.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1586.81 | 1306.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.31 | -17.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.72 | -1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |