← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Dec 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 61% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 |
| Hansa Rostock win | 18% | 5.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hansa Rostock −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand