← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 58% | 1.68 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 22% | 4.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.38 |
| Under | 30% | 3.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 20' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 69' | 🟥 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 77' | 🟥 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pelle Boevink · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | 🟨 | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 891.00 | 891.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1614.68 | 1507.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.83 | -24.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |