← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Dec 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Nurnberg win | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nurnberg +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Florian Kastenmeier · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nicolas Gavory · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 38' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ao Tanaka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincent Vermeij · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 57' | 🟨 | Vincent Vermeij · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Brown · Nurnberg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jona Niemiec · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 184.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 669.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.63 |
| elo | 1430.84 | 1540.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.49 | -8.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.81 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |