← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Nov 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 45% | 2.13 |
| Nurnberg win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe |
| 26' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · Nurnberg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe |
| 61' | ⚽ | Can Uzun · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe |
| 89' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 1394.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1468.25 | 1486.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.32 | 40.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 14.71 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 30.15 | 25.04 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |