← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Nov 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Kaiserslautern −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
| 45' | 🟨 | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 58' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Fritz-Walter-Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 574.00 | 786.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1475.84 | 1515.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.20 | 4.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.38 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |