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Braunschweig 3–2 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Nov 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win41%2.45
VfL Osnabruck win32%3.09
Draw27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck −0.2553%1.82
Braunschweig −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Johan Arath Gomez · Braunschweig
20'🟨Robert Ivanov · Braunschweig
22'🟨Oumar Diakhite · VfL Osnabruck
33'🟨Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck
45'⚽ (pen)Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck
52'🟨Ermin Bičakčić · Braunschweig
60'🟨Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck
60'🟥Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck
61'🟨Robert Tesche · VfL Osnabruck
65'🟨Robin Krausse · Braunschweig
71'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots6
8On target3
4Corners4
18Fouls12
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigVfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.600.71
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
Anton Donkor · Braunschweig
79'🟨Dave Gnaase · VfL Osnabruck
87'⚽ (pen)Erik Engelhardt · VfL Osnabruck
90'⚽Ermin Bičakčić · Braunschweig
2.80
coach days10.0010.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.873.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.37
elo1329.741327.73
elo momentum (last 5)-42.77-11.15
eye test v1-0.69-0.42
eye trend v10.070.05
first sub minute (last 10)51.3058.10
form points (last 5)0.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)3.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.640.65
league points5.007.00
league rank19.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.0020.00
matches since win10.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)45.4042.80
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.430.36
season ppg0.380.54
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-7.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4011.20
skill v1-0.56-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)6.207.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age28.3227.25
state index-1.69-1.15
sterile dominance v1-0.47-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40