← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Nov 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 29% | 3.52 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.07 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.44 |
| Under | 33% | 2.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 31' | 🟨 | Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 68' | 🟨 | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 80' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
| 83' | ⚽ | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jonas Sterner · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 863.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1497.54 | 1627.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.27 | 16.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |