← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Nov 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Nurnberg win | 32% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.86 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg |
| 61' | 🟥 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 863.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1549.52 | 1465.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.51 | 29.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 25.11 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |