← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Nov 5, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 43% | 2.23 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.55 |
| Under | 37% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Robin Bormuth · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 61' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 71' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marco Thiede · Karlsruhe |
| 86' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1373.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1482.22 | 1531.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.96 | 14.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 26.21 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |