← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Oct 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 38% | 2.65 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Christian Kinsombi · Hansa Rostock |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 35' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | 🟨 | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 58' | ⚽ | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 69' | 🟨 | Christian Kinsombi · Hansa Rostock |
| 82' | 🟨 | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | 🟥 | Carl Johansson · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Ostseestadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 235.00 | 751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1429.10 | 1506.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.07 | -9.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |