← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Oct 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Hertha win | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hertha +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Benjamin Goller · Nurnberg |
| 15' | ⚽ | Smail Prevljak · Hertha |
| 31' | 🟨 | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 57' | ⚽ | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 67' | 🟥 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Hertha |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Toni Leistner · Nurnberg |
| 74' | 🟥 | Iván Márquez · Nurnberg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Daichi Hayashi · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bilal Hussein · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 143.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1438.27 | 1562.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.02 | 4.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.60 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 14.71 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.57 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |