← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Oct 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 47% | 2.09 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 29% | 3.45 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 842.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1543.18 | 1627.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.87 | 37.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 13.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |