← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Oct 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 |
| Greuther Furth win | 21% | 4.62 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Greuther Furth −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 26' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gian-Luca Itter · Greuther Furth |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Damian Michalski · Greuther Furth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Lemperle · Greuther Furth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 842.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1614.96 | 1485.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.67 | 21.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.76 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 41.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| league points | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 24.73 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |