← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Oct 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 48% | 2.05 |
| Hertha win | 28% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 56% | 1.74 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 37% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Smail Prevljak · Hertha |
| 51' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 78' | 🟨 | Toni Leistner · Hertha |
| 80' | ⚽ | Yusuf Kabadayi · FC Schalke 04 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 85' | 🟥 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustav Christensen · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Arena AufSchalke |
| coach days | 7.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1548.86 | 1550.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.25 | 6.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |