← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Oct 7, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.41 |
| Nurnberg win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Nurnberg −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Elias Saad · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 15' | 🟨 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 56' | ⚽ | Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Etienne Amenyido · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| Connor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1619.99 | 1446.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.24 | 5.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.81 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 41.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |