← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Oct 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.51 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 19% | 5.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfL Osnabruck −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.46 |
| Under | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand