← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Oct 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Magdeburg win | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luc Castaignos · Magdeburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Felix Lohkemper · Nurnberg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jan Luca Schuler · Magdeburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mats Møller Dæhli · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason Ceka · Magdeburg |
| coach days | 122.00 | 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1436.07 | 1494.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.91 | 31.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.90 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 26.25 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |