← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Sep 30, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 24% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.45 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Ba-Muaka Simakala · Holstein Kiel |
| 24' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 27' | ⚽ | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 59' | 🟨 | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 1337.00 | 729.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1484.08 | 1493.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.64 | -11.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 30.27 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |