← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Sep 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 45% | 2.15 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 31% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.52 |
| Under | 36% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · FC Schalke 04 |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04 |
| 76' | ⚽ | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yusuf Kabadayi · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 820.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1518.01 | 1563.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.51 | -43.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |