← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Sep 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 43% | 2.29 |
| Hertha win | 33% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.43 |
| Under | 33% | 2.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 14' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 27' | ⚽ | Smail Prevljak · Hertha |
| 39' | ⚽ | Andreas Bouchalakis · Hertha |
| 54' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 65' | 🟨 | Michał Karbownik · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bence Dárdai · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| coach days | 723.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1504.21 | 1550.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.40 | -20.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 45.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 25.36 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |