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VfL Osnabruck 2–1 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Sep 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win59%1.62
Draw21%4.75
VfL Osnabruck win20%4.94

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck +151%1.92
Hamburger SV +149%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over70%1.38
Under30%3.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨László Bénes · Hamburger SV
12'⚽Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV
16'⚽Erik Engelhardt · VfL Osnabruck
22'🟨Robert Tesche · VfL Osnabruck
39'⚽Oumar Diakhite · VfL Osnabruck
41'🟨Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV
44'🟨Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck
51'🟨William Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV
57'🟨Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck
59'🟨Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
60'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots8
9On target3
13Corners7
10Fouls15
5Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfL OsnabruckHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.42
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days417.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBremer Brücke
Christian Joe Conteh
· VfL Osnabruck
75'🟨Dave Gnaase · VfL Osnabruck
75'🟨Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV
813.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.292.50
elo1305.801598.60
elo momentum (last 5)-31.207.90
eye test v1-0.281.26
eye trend v1-0.33-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)59.1058.30
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.51
keeper form v10.580.73
league points1.0013.00
league rank18.001.00
matches since blank0.0012.00
matches since clean sheet16.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0082.40
possession avg (last 5)43.4056.00
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg0.172.17
skill v1-0.620.88
sot against avg (last 5)6.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.006.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.80
state index-1.470.56
sterile dominance v1-0.810.08
threat rate (last 10)0.290.31
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00