← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Sep 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 20% | 4.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hamburger SV +1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.38 |
| Under | 30% | 3.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 12' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 16' | ⚽ | Erik Engelhardt · VfL Osnabruck |
| 22' | 🟨 | Robert Tesche · VfL Osnabruck |
| 39' | ⚽ | Oumar Diakhite · VfL Osnabruck |
| 41' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck |
| 51' | 🟨 | William Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | 🟨 | Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dave Gnaase · VfL Osnabruck |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 417.00 | 813.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1322.81 | 1627.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.33 | -3.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 26.36 |
| state index | -1.58 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |