← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Sep 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 4.00 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 25% | 4.12 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Sascha Burchert · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 4' | ⚽ | Connor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 7' | ⚽ | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 16' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 27' | 🟨 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 49' | 🟨 | Elias Saad · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 69' | ⚽ | Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 73' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 716.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.03 |
| elo | 1546.41 | 1475.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.23 | 27.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.45 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |