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Hannover 7–0 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Sep 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win52%1.83
Draw24%4.06
VfL Osnabruck win24%4.19

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.553%1.83
VfL Osnabruck −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
28'🟨Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck
37'🟥Niklas Wiemann · VfL Osnabruck
45'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
58'⚽Louis Schaub · Hannover
63'🟨Dave Gnaase · VfL Osnabruck
63'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
70'⚽ (pen)Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
77'⚽Derrick Köhn · Hannover
80'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
24Shots6
15On target3
5Corners3
13Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverVfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.57
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
coach days443.00412.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.791.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.14
dominance (last 5)0.460.50
elo1476.221333.50
elo momentum (last 5)24.63-26.95
eye test v1-0.050.33
eye trend v1-0.15-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)60.5061.60
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.05
keeper form v10.620.62
league points9.001.00
league rank7.0019.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.0016.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4044.40
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg1.500.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4014.00
skill v1-0.10-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
squad age26.4126.25
state index0.10-1.02
sterile dominance v1-0.05-1.18
threat rate (last 10)0.250.33
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80