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FC Schalke 04 4–3 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Sep 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win47%2.07
Magdeburg win28%3.40
Draw25%4.01

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 −0.2554%1.81
Magdeburg −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.47
Under35%2.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg
27'⚽Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg
40'⚽Sebastian Polter · FC Schalke 04
45'🟨Sebastian Polter · FC Schalke 04
45'🟨Cedric Brunner · FC Schalke 04
55'🟨Yusuf Kabadayi · FC Schalke 04
59'🟨Jason Ceka · Magdeburg
62'⚽Derry Murkin · FC Schalke 04
67'⚽Connor Krempicki · Magdeburg
68'🟨Daniel Heber · Magdeburg
69'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots12
9On target6
9Corners4
22Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04Magdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days15.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena AufSchalke
Jean Hugonet
· Magdeburg
69'⚽Thomas Ouwejan · FC Schalke 04
77'🟥Daniel Heber · Magdeburg
79'⚽ (pen)Sebastian Polter · FC Schalke 04
85'🟨Barış Atik · Magdeburg
90'🟨Thomas Ouwejan · FC Schalke 04
957.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.701.84
elo1507.471468.10
elo momentum (last 5)-37.3845.15
eye test v10.470.86
eye trend v1-0.410.60
first sub minute (last 10)53.8053.90
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.262.04
keeper form v10.710.78
league points4.0011.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6082.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6060.60
rest days14.3114.31
scorer concentration0.290.31
season ppg0.802.20
skill v10.561.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.405.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.008.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.20
squad age26.69—
state index-0.340.37
sterile dominance v10.220.79
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20