← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 45% | 2.14 |
| Nurnberg win | 28% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Richmond Tachie · Kaiserslautern |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tymoteusz Puchacz · Kaiserslautern |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benjamin Goller · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟥 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean Zimmer · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Fritz-Walter-Stadion |
| coach days | 489.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1473.95 | 1448.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.53 | 18.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.40 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 25.52 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |