← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.40 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.60 |
| Under | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Robert Leipertz · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jannis Heuer · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mattes Hansen · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 701.00 | 793.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1507.65 | 1519.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.25 | -41.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 24.80 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |