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Magdeburg 6–4 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Bauer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win39%2.43
Magdeburg win35%2.81
Draw25%3.85

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha +054%1.82
Magdeburg +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Fabian Reese · Hertha
7'⚽Silas Gnaka · Magdeburg
8'🟨Toni Leistner · Hertha
14'🟨Daniel Heber · Magdeburg
20'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
22'⚽Marten Winkler · Hertha
35'🟨Márton Dárdai · Hertha
37'⚽Jan Luca Schuler · Magdeburg
42'⚽Haris Tabaković · Hertha
45'🟨Barış Atik · Magdeburg
49'⚽Jason Ceka · Magdeburg
55'⚽Haris Tabaković · Hertha
58'⚽Leon Bell Bell · Magdeburg
68'⚽Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg
90'⚽Ahmet Arslan · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3
23Shots12
12On target7
4Corners3
6Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.35
box share (last 5)0.610.66
cards avg (last 5)0.001.00
coach days943.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
154.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.992.82
elo1454.181489.20
elo momentum (last 5)48.090.54
eye test v10.540.03
eye trend v10.400.21
first sub minute (last 10)56.5047.00
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.58
keeper form v10.790.81
league points8.003.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)63.0045.00
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.430.40
season ppg2.000.75
skill v11.39-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age—25.08
state index0.51-0.14
sterile dominance v11.26-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60