← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Sep 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 14' | ⚽ | Yannik Engelhardt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nicolas Gavory · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Christos Tzolis · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Marvin Wanitzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 75' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Düsseldorf Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 1308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1605.45 | 1503.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.44 | 12.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 29.95 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |