← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Aug 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Hertha win | 23% | 4.36 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hertha −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.37 |
| Under | 30% | 3.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · Hertha |
| 38' | ⚽ | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 49' | 🟨 | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 82' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 779.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1630.13 | 1555.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.89 | -17.13 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 44.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.29 | 15.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |