← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Aug 5, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 39% | 2.51 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 36% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | 🟨 | Robert Wagner · Greuther Furth |
| 63' | ⚽ | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jonas Sterner · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Greuther Furth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1496.82 | 1503.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.62 | 37.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 44.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 24.12 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |