← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Jul 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Nurnberg win | 29% | 3.39 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hansa Rostock −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.68 |
| Over | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Nico Neidhart · Hansa Rostock |
| 38' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Damian Roßbach · Hansa Rostock |
| 42' | ⚽ | John-Patrick Strauss · Hansa Rostock |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nils Fröling · Hansa Rostock |
| 51' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Nurnberg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alexander Rossipal · Hansa Rostock |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Brown · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ostseestadion |
| coach days | 151.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1422.41 | 1444.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.43 | 0.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.79 | 24.81 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |