← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Jul 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig +0 | 56% | 1.74 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Hasan Kuruçay · Braunschweig |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ba-Muaka Simakala · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | 🟨 | Hasan Kuruçay · Braunschweig |
| 51' | 🟥 | Hasan Kuruçay · Braunschweig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saulo Decarli · Braunschweig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Eintracht-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1392.69 | 1487.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | -2.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |