← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Jul 29, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 44% | 2.20 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| VfL Osnabruck +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 13' | ⚽ | Erik Engelhardt · VfL Osnabruck |
| 18' | 🟨 | Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck |
| 36' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 52' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck |
| 71' | ⚽ | Robert Tesche · VfL Osnabruck |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck |
| 90' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| coach days | 362.00 | 1274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1368.53 | 1495.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.16 | 9.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 28.66 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |