⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Leganes 2–0 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Jun 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win56%1.70
Draw29%3.30
Elche CF win15%7.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes −0.7550%1.94
Elche CF −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.53
Over38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Miguel de la Fuente · Leganes
45'🟨Cristian Salvador · Elche CF
45'🟨Mario Gaspar · Elche CF
45'⚽Juan Cruz · Leganes
76'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
81'🟨Adam Boayar · Elche CF
87'🟨Yvan Neyou · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
7Shots9
5On target1
2Corners3
8Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.760.53
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
coach days337.00459.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.25
dominance (last 5)0.520.67
elo1592.511515.93
elo momentum (last 5)7.09-52.49
eye test v1-0.070.29
eye trend v10.120.01
first sub minute (last 10)55.8051.00
form points (last 5)10.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.770.69
league points81.0068.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.0012.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8087.20
possession avg (last 5)47.0068.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg1.801.51
shot diff avg (last 5)1.609.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0018.80
skill v1-0.012.11
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
squad age28.6326.61
state index0.22-0.80
sterile dominance v10.021.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40