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Cartagena 0–2 Huesca

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, May 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win43%2.25
Draw31%3.10
Cartagena win26%3.81

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +0.2551%1.90
Cartagena +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Huesca
32'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca
39'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
60'⚽Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Huesca
64'🟨Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Huesca
88'🟨Iker Kortajarena · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots7
0On target3
4Corners3
9Fouls11
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.540.63
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
coach days268.00238.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.201.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.010.17
dominance (last 5)0.430.43
elo1518.241493.10
elo momentum (last 5)42.47-28.39
eye test v1-0.16-0.70
eye trend v10.190.27
first sub minute (last 10)60.9060.70
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.90—
league points60.0048.00
league rank12.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4079.40
possession avg (last 5)46.6050.40
rest days7.198.09
scorer concentration0.230.13
season ppg1.361.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.809.80
skill v10.010.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.902.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.60
squad age31.3128.37
state index0.58-0.56
sterile dominance v10.050.36
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00