← Segunda División 2023 · Fri, May 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Sesma
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.65 |
| Eldense win | 20% | 4.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eldense −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Burgos −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Soberón · Eldense |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kevin Appin · Burgos |
| 44' | ⚽ | Juanto Ortuño · Eldense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Juanto Ortuño · Eldense |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sergio Ortuño · Eldense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Álex Sancris · Burgos |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pedro Capó · Eldense |
| 88' | 🟨 | David Timor · Eldense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Ojeda · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 344.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1519.30 | 1442.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.51 | -42.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 63.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.08 | 5.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 30.28 |
| state index | 0.07 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |