← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, May 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Burgos win | 22% | 4.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Zaragoza −0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Fran Gámez · Zaragoza |
| 28' | ⚽ | Joni Montiel · Burgos |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jaume Grau · Zaragoza |
| 46' | ⚽ | Curro · Burgos |
| 55' | 🟨 | Borja Gonzalez Tejada · Burgos |
| 84' | ⚽ | Álex Sancris · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Romareda |
| coach days | 65.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1512.07 | 1501.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.90 | -27.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |