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Ferrol 1–0 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win41%2.43
Draw32%3.01
Ferrol win28%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ferrol +0.2552%1.86
Elche CF +0.2548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Pedro Bigas · Elche CF
22'🟨Nicolás Castro · Elche CF
62'🟨Jon García · Ferrol
62'🟨Mourad El Ghezouani · Elche CF
63'🟨Josan · Elche CF
64'⚽Nico Serrano · Ferrol
65'🟨Nico Serrano · Ferrol
65'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots7
4On target3
0Corners7
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFerrolElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de A Malata
coach days1154.00396.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.733.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.69
elo1510.471581.81
elo momentum (last 5)-7.7919.57
eye test v10.260.95
eye trend v10.34-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)55.2055.00
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.640.90
league points55.0059.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6085.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2061.20
rest days5.786.86
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg1.571.69
shot diff avg (last 5)4.2010.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.4019.20
skill v10.541.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.80
squad age27.0628.68
state index-0.060.62
sterile dominance v10.460.40
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.280.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80