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Burgos 1–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Mar 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burgos win45%2.22
Draw31%3.14
Levante UD win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burgos −0.2552%1.88
Levante UD −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Álex Sancris · Burgos
50'🟨Anderson Arroyo · Burgos
57'🟨Fernando Niño · Burgos
64'🟨Kevin Appin · Burgos
65'🟨Fabrício Santos · Levante UD
72'⚽Roger Brugué · Levante UD
90'🟨Miguel Atienza · Burgos
90'🟨Nikola Maraš · Levante UD
90'🟨Álex Muñoz · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots11
11On target2
7Corners8
8Fouls12
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurgosLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.600.60
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de El Plantío
coach days289.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.841.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.03
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1545.551579.51
elo momentum (last 5)30.41-0.06
eye test v10.01-0.09
eye trend v1-0.08-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)59.6055.70
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.750.68
league points54.0048.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6082.20
possession avg (last 5)41.2049.40
rest days5.812.79
scorer concentration0.220.20
season ppg1.641.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.60
skill v1-0.830.44
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age27.4526.37
state index0.530.08
sterile dominance v1-0.98-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.35
threat rate (last 5)0.300.31
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60