← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Mar 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
| Cartagena win | 18% | 5.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Cartagena −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Curro · Burgos |
| 35' | ⚽ | Curro · Burgos |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kevin Appin · Burgos |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · Cartagena |
| 51' | 🟨 | Unai Elgezabal · Burgos |
| 71' | ⚽ | Curro · Burgos |
| 80' | 🟥 | Joni Montiel · Burgos |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Bermejo Escribano · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 275.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1518.78 | 1496.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.71 | 18.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 30.32 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |