← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Feb 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: José Guzmán
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elche CF win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Eibar win | 28% | 3.46 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Elche CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |