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Zaragoza 2–2 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2023 · Wed, Dec 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win43%2.25
Draw31%3.10
Levante UD win26%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.2551%1.89
Levante UD −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD
42'⚽Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · Zaragoza
45'⚽Maikel Mesa · Zaragoza
62'⚽Fabrício Santos · Levante UD
67'🟨Santiago Mouriño · Zaragoza
70'⚽Roger Brugué · Levante UD
86'🟨Toni Moya · Zaragoza
90'🟨Andrés Fernández · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots9
4On target5
5Corners2
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.630.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days49.00445.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.480.57
elo1502.841590.71
elo momentum (last 5)-15.393.05
eye test v1-0.660.77
eye trend v1-0.070.26
first sub minute (last 10)61.9042.40
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.690.84
league points31.0033.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)52.0050.80
rest days3.023.11
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.411.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.004.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2015.40
skill v10.110.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.40
squad age25.8427.03
state index-0.370.02
sterile dominance v10.65-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.180.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40