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RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3–3 Burgos

← Segunda División 2023 · Tue, Dec 19, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win58%1.68
Draw26%3.75
Burgos win16%6.01

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.7552%1.88
Burgos −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Kevin Appin · Burgos
15'🟨Grego Sierra · Burgos
20'⚽Martin Braithwaite · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
45'🟨Keidi Bare · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
45'🟨Curro · Burgos
45'⚽Grego Sierra · Burgos
58'🟨Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
64'⚽Sergi Gómez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
75'⚽Curro · Burgos
81'⚽Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
88'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots12
7On target6
6Corners6
8Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRCD Espanyol de BarcelonaBurgos
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.560.69
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStage Front Stadium
Óscar Gil · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
2.00
coach days48.00201.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.02
dominance (last 5)0.460.51
elo1573.801500.65
elo momentum (last 5)-1.5129.10
eye test v1-0.50-0.60
eye trend v1-0.440.30
first sub minute (last 10)53.8058.20
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.710.63
league points33.0032.00
league rank8.0010.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8042.60
rest days3.223.13
scorer concentration0.270.20
season ppg1.501.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.40
skill v1-0.26-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
squad age27.1327.57
state index0.090.37
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40