⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mirandes 2–0 Albacete

← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win42%2.34
Mirandes win29%3.43
Draw29%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes +0.2551%1.92
Albacete +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Carlos Martín · Mirandes
58'🟨Javier Martón Ansó · Mirandes
59'🟨Lander Olaetxea · Albacete
63'🟨Julio Alonso · Albacete
64'⚽ (pen)Carlos Martín · Mirandes
88'🟨Rubén Sánchez · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots11
3On target3
2Corners7
9Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
coach days168.00563.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.801.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.883.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.460.65
elo1498.921497.22
elo momentum (last 5)0.7423.68
eye test v10.000.66
eye trend v10.020.30
first sub minute (last 10)62.4053.80
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.55
league points27.0027.00
league rank16.0015.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4075.00
possession avg (last 5)49.2047.60
rest days7.008.10
scorer concentration0.220.22
season ppg1.291.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.807.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4017.60
skill v10.10-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age23.7527.28
state index-0.110.30
sterile dominance v10.31-1.33
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.210.43
threat rate (last 5)0.210.39
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60