← Segunda División 2023 · Sat, Dec 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Orellana
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cartagena win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Burgos win | 26% | 3.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cartagena −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.45 |
| Over | 33% | 2.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Álex Bermejo Escribano · Burgos |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Verdú · Cartagena |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Cartagena |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ivan Calero · Cartagena |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · Cartagena |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luis Muñoz · Cartagena |
| 63' | ⚽ | Álex Bermejo Escribano · Burgos |
| 73' | ⚽ | Matos · Burgos |
| 76' | 🟨 | Matos · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cartagena | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Cartagonova |
| coach days | 106.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1459.60 | 1481.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.14 | 19.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.23 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |