← Segunda División 2023 · Fri, Dec 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo win | 43% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Elche CF win | 27% | 4.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Elche CF −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.49 |
| Over | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere |