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Eibar 2–2 Andorra (club)

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Dec 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win57%1.67
Draw26%3.75
Andorra (club) win17%6.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar −0.7552%1.87
Andorra (club) −0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.74
Over44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Iker Benito · Andorra (club)
23'⚽Stoichkov · Eibar
26'🟨José Marsà · Andorra (club)
36'⚽ (og)Sergi Samper · Eibar
45'🟨Adrià Vilanova · Andorra (club)
58'🟨Jon Bautista · Eibar
60'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
61'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
61'🟥Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
69'🟨Sergi Samper · Andorra (club)
81'🟨Álvaro Tejero

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots16
4On target5
5Corners1
14Fouls13
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarAndorra (club)
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.560.60
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
· Eibar
81'🟨Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
82'⚽ (pen)Manuel Nieto · Andorra (club)
coach days162.001073.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.004.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.961.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.54
elo1571.201493.66
elo momentum (last 5)-27.38-7.51
eye test v1-0.270.21
eye trend v1-0.600.06
first sub minute (last 10)62.4058.00
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.730.68
league points30.0023.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2088.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0067.40
rest days5.927.19
scorer concentration0.250.14
season ppg1.581.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.00
skill v10.622.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age29.0224.53
state index-0.12-0.22
sterile dominance v10.561.83
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60